Market Pundits in 2016 – A Reality Check20160218134045
Market Pundits in 2016 – A Reality Check
Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it’s interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible...
How Smart is Smart Beta?20160216090029
How Smart is Smart Beta?
If smart beta is smart, is my beta dumb? First, a definition: smart beta strategies are (allegedly) better ways of getting exposure to equities, bond...
The Commodity Head Fake20160209104553
The Commodity Head Fake
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future. Niels Bohr In the annals of modern portfolio theory, commodities deserve an award f...
The Trouble with Oil (Part Three)20160201205252
The Trouble with Oil (Part Three)
One thing that I’ve realized is that there’s a disconnect in how different investors think about oil. For asset allocators, oil and commodities are a ...
Position Crowding and Valeant20160130204022
Position Crowding and Valeant
Position crowding is when a bunch of similar investors own a stock. When those investors rush for the exits at the same time, the price drops a lot m...
The Trouble with Oil (Part Two)20160129201734
The Trouble with Oil (Part Two)
Two weeks ago we wrote a post on oil (The Trouble with Oil Part 1) – why it matters to equities these days, and how the initial market response (and ...
Japan & Abenomics redux20160129192454
Japan & Abenomics redux
Overnight, Japan’s central bank pushed short term interest rates into negative territory and pledged more monetary stimulus. For a brief overview of ...
Why Don’t Value Investors Always Buy the Dips?20160120192947
Why Don’t Value Investors Always Buy the Dips?
In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it’s a weighing machine. For fun, let’s assume you’re a value investor looking at G...
The Trouble with Oil20160116192938
The Trouble with Oil
In an earlier post, we talked about market volatility when new risks move to center stage. Well, crude oil is center stage, to say the least. Why? O...
An Excerpt from the Mid-Month Update20160115192619
An Excerpt from the Mid-Month Update
Given the market volatility, we provided a mid-month update to our investors. The following is a brief commentary on the markets: For purposes of thi...