Market Pundits in 2016 – A Reality Check20160218134045

Market Pundits in 2016 – A Reality Check

February 18, 2016Research
Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Prize winner in Economics for Behavioral Finance theory)It’s ...
Why Don’t Value Investors Always Buy the Dips?20160120192947

Why Don’t Value Investors Always Buy the Dips?

In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it’s a weighing machine.For fun, let’s assume you’re a value investor looking at GM in late 2015.  Like all good value investors, you want to make decisions based on “intrinsic value” – that is, what a company is worth, not where the...
Market Psychology and the Investor Narrative20160107152634

Market Psychology and the Investor Narrative

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.So said Mark Twain, or possibly someone else, depending on whom you believe.You might say the same thing about market drawdowns.  While next year’s crisis won’t look quite like last year’s, they’ll share some common traits.  Hence the rhyming.Let’s ...