The Trouble with Oil (Part Three)20160201205252

The Trouble with Oil (Part Three)

February 1, 2016Research
One thing that I’ve realized is that there’s a disconnect in how different investors think about oil. For asset allocators, oil and commodities are a financial asset. Volatility and drawdowns are viewed like those of a stock. Oil down 20% feels a lot like a stock down 20%.For investors in oil compan...
The Trouble with Oil (Part Two)20160129201734

The Trouble with Oil (Part Two)

January 29, 2016Research
Two weeks ago we wrote a post on oil (The Trouble with Oil Part 1)  – why it matters to equities these days, and how the initial market response (and pundit commentary) seemed to miss some key fundamental aspects of commodity supply and demand.What a difference two weeks makes.  A few updates:Oil is...
The Trouble with Oil20160116192938

The Trouble with Oil

January 16, 2016Research
In an earlier post, we talked about market volatility when new risks move to center stage.Well, crude oil is center stage, to say the least.  Why?  Oil at $30 per barrel for a few years would lead to (literally) a world of hurt:  widespread bankruptcies in the oil patch, massive write-downs in bank ...
An Excerpt from the Mid-Month Update20160115192619

An Excerpt from the Mid-Month Update

Given the market volatility, we provided a mid-month update to our investors.  The following is a brief commentary on the markets:For purposes of this update, we’ll highlight some ways in which the situation today is very different from 2008:On the positive side, while the Great Financial Crisis nea...